HOUSTON - Cars and trucks streamed inland and chemical companies buttoned up their plants Thursday as a gigantic Hurricane Ike took aim at the heart of the U.S. refining industry and threatened to send a wall of water crashing toward Houston and Galveston.
Nearly 1 million people along the Texas coast were ordered to evacuate ahead of the storm, which was expected to strike late Friday or early Saturday. But in a calculated risk aimed at avoiding total gridlock, authorities told most people in Houston — the nation’s fourth-largest city — to just hunker down.
The storm is so big, it could inflict a punishing blow even in those areas that do not get a direct hit. Forecasters warned that because of Ike’s size and the state’s shallow coastal waters, it could produce a surge, or wall of water, 20 feet high, and waves of perhaps 50 feet. It could also dump 10 inches or more of rain.
“It’s a big storm. I cannot overemphasize the danger that is facing us,” Gov. Rick Perry said at a news conference. “It’s going to do some substantial damage. It’s going to knock out power. It’s going to cause massive flooding.”
Ike is huge, taking up nearly 40 percent of the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center said tropical storm-force winds of at least 39 mph extended across more than 510 miles, and hurricane-force winds of at least 74 mph stretched for 220 miles. A typical storm has tropical storm-force winds stretching only 300 miles.
Because of its great size, storm surge and gigantic waves are the biggest risk, said Hugh Willoughby, former director of the federal government’s hurricane research division. The larger the storm, the longer it hits and the higher waves can build.
Traffic was building on roadways leading away from low-lying areas in Galveston County, and officials urged residents to finish storm preparations quickly. Some gas stations were running out of fuel as residents scurried to leave.
Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas on Thursday ordered a mandatory evacuation for the entire island on which the city sits. An earlier order had covered just the west side of the island, which is unprotected by a seawall.
“This is a very hard call for me to make but our intent is to save lives,” she said. “We believe it is best for people to leave.”
No shelters in Galveston
She said the city of 60,000 — virtually destroyed by a hurricane in 1900 that killed more than 6,000 people and remains the nation’s worst natural disaster — will not open shelters. She advised those who ignore the order to have supplies like food, water and medicine and to secure their homes.
By midday, lines of cars, buses and trucks crowded onto a bridge to leave the island. Others without transportation waited for buses to carry them to hurricane shelters inland.
“I have been through enough storms not to stick around for big ones,” Jeff Henning, who left Galveston County with his family for Florida, told msnbc.com. “I am also well prepared for a return as I know the aftermath is what always wears people down long after the exciting winds have left.”
Others hunkered down. Henning said he knew of a family who planned to ride out Ike with other boat owners at a marina boathouse.
And Keith Andrews, a shipyard worker, said that “I’m just going to batten down and not worry about it. If the Lord wants you, he’s going to take you anyway.”
Mandatory evacuations were also ordered for tens of thousands of people in low-lying areas in Harris County, where Houston is located.
“We’re not talking about gently rising water but a surge that could come into your home,” said Harris County Judge Ed Emmett, the county’s chief administrator.
Most of the evacuations were limited to sections outside Houston, as well as nearby bayous and Galveston Bay.
Hoping to avoid the traffic gridlock of three years ago, when Hurricane Rita threatened the area, officials urged the 2 million residents of the city itself and 1 million in other areas of the county to remain at home.
“We are still saying: Please shelter in place, or to use the Texas expression, hunker down,” said Emmett. “For the vast majority of people who live in our area, stay where you are. The winds will blow and they’ll howl and we’ll get a lot of rain, but if you lose power and need to leave, you can do that later.”
Other evacuation orders were issued for all of Jefferson and Orange counties, an area home to more than 320,000 people between Houston and the Louisiana state line, and part of San Patricio County farther south.
Jefferson and Orange were two of three Southeast Texas counties that also had mandatory evacuations as Hurricane Gustav approached about two weeks ago. The region suffered major damage during Hurricane Rita in September 2005.
On Wednesday, authorities began moving people with special needs by bus to San Antonio, about 190 miles from Houston.
Houston flights disrupted
In Houston, gleaming skyscrapers, the nation’s biggest refinery and NASA’s Johnson Space Center lie in areas that could be vulnerable to wind and damaging floodwaters if Ike crashes ashore as a major hurricane.
Airlines canceled flights to the region.
American Airlines is canceling all flights in and out of Houston’s Intercontinental airport as of noon Friday and all day Saturday. Southwest is canceling all flights in and out of Houston’s Hobby airport as of Friday morning.
In Tierra Grande, a low-lying rural neighborhood south of Corpus Christi, residents struggled with the cost of evacuation and the strong pull to stay with their homes and animals. Few, if any, appeared to be leaving.
Diana Acevedo said she and her family considered leaving their double-wide trailer, but they had called around and it was too late to find a place to stay. Looking out at a rickety swingset and tricycle in the front yard, Acevedo said they would pick up loose items and perhaps board windows like some of her neighbors.
“I think it’s going to get really bad,” she said. In previous heavy rains, water filled with sewage from flooded septic tanks has lapped near her door, more than two feet off the ground.
About 1 million people live in the coastal counties between Corpus Christi and Galveston.
Hurricane winds extend 115 miles
Ike is a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds and could grow to a ferocious Category 4 on the five-step intensity scale with winds of 132 mph before coming ashore late Friday or early Saturday, the National Hurricane Center said.
NBC WeatherPlus meteorologist Bill Karins emphasized that Ike looks like it will make landfall “into the most densely populated region on the Gulf Coast.
“This is a very large hurricane with significant impacts expected far from the eye’s landfall,” he added. “With our weather computers settling on a landfall just south of the greater Houston/Galveston area, the extent of damage will be determined by Ike’s intensity as he moves onshore. A strong Category 3 is predicted by the National Hurricane Center but Ike could just as easily be a Cat 2 or Cat 4.”
At 8 p.m. ET, the storm was centered about 370 miles southeast of Galveston, and was moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph, after ravaging homes in Cuba and killing dozens of people in the Caribbean.
“The center of Ike should be very near the coast by late Friday,” the hurricane center reported. “However, because Ike is a very large tropical cyclone weather will deteriorate along the coastline before the center reaches the coast.”
Hurricane warnings were in effect over a 400-mile stretch of coastline from south of Corpus Christi to Morgan City, Louisiana. Tropical storm warnings extended south almost to the Mexican border and east to the Mississippi-Alabama line, including New Orleans.
In Louisiana, where Gustav was blamed for 29 deaths, officials closed flood gates and state offices along the coast.
“Today would be a good time for folks to fuel up their cars, just to make sure they have sufficient supplies,” Gov. Bobby Jindal said, adding the state corrections department had evacuated about 1,400 prisoners from Cameron and Calcasieu parishes in the state’s southwest.
‘Dirty’ side of the storm
Forecasters expect the storm to make landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Houston, creating the potential for heavy punishment for Houston even if it’s not hit directly.
If current projections of the storm’s path hold up, the area surrounding Houston would be lashed by the eastern or “dirty” side of the storm, said meteorologist Jeff Masters, co-founder of the Weather Underground forecasting service. This stronger side of the storm often packs heavy rains, walloping storm surge and tornadoes.
“I expect a lot of damage in Houston from this storm,” said Masters, adding that Ike could cause a “huge storm surge” affecting at least 100 miles of the Texas coast.
Houston officials were expecting some flooding, the question is how much.
Patrick Trahan, spokesman for the city of Houston, said that “based on the current forecast (we) would expect to see some flooding based solely on the surge in some low-lying areas.”
The surge in Galveston Bay could push floodwaters into Houston, damaging areas that include the nation’s biggest refinery and NASA’s Johnson Space Center, which closed down Thursday as a precaution.
Port, refineries threatened
The Port of Houston, the nation’s second largest port, shut down operations Thursday afternoon and was to remain closed until Monday.
The oil and gas industry also watched the storm closely, fearing damage to the very heart of its operations. Nearly the entire oil and gas output in the Gulf of Mexico was shut off as a precaution.
Some 11 refineries along the coast have shut down their operations, accounting for 2.8 million barrels per day or more than 16 percent of the nation’s fuel production capacity.
Supply concerns sent wholesale gasoline prices soaring to record levels between $4 and $5 a gallon Thursday. That means retailers will pay more for gasoline, and consumers can expect hikes at the pump. How much gas prices rise, analysts say, depends largely on how long refineries remain shuttered after the storm passes.
“The worst case scenario for the hurricane season is what we’re looking at with Ike,” said Chris Jarvis, senior analyst at Caprock Management. “This is the one area that is very much the Achilles’ heel of the energy complex.”
Texas is home to 26 refineries that account for one-fourth of U.S. refining capacity, and most are clustered along the Gulf Coast in such places as Houston, Port Arthur and Corpus Christi. Exxon Mobil Corp.’s plant in Baytown, outside Houston, is the nation’s largest refinery.
Refineries are built to withstand high winds, but flooding can disrupt operations and — as happened in Louisiana after Hurricane Gustav — power outages can shut down equipment for days or weeks.
Dow Chemical and BASF have huge operations that were being shut down as a precaution as well.
In the Florida Panhandle, Ike pushed up storm surge that flooded a highway on Okaloosa Island as the storm passed in the Gulf. U.S. Highway 98 was closed, and was expected to stay closed through Saturday. The Panhandle, where surf was up to 5 feet higher than usual in some places, also was under a high surf warning, and emergency officials urged beach-goers to stay out of the rough water.
Source — MSNBC